Edge of the World
Whale Watch
A million-dollar trade gets your attention. What should you make of it?
Whale Watch follows unusually large and concentrated trades in political prediction markets. Open a case and the trade comes with its earlier activity, share of the observed flow and price history.
View larger ↗The October snapshot has 24,265 reported trades across 59 contracts, grouped into 309 episodes. The board turns that pile of prints into individual cases you can inspect.
Give the trade a bit of context
Size is judged against earlier observations, so the baseline cannot quietly learn from the future. Nearby trades from the same wallet are grouped together, and a five-minute concentration measure shows how much of the local flow they represent.
A big alert is a prompt to investigate. The useful part is being able to see the evidence around it, rather than treating a large wallet as proof of an informed trader.
Under the hood
Past-only robust anomaly scores, five-minute concentration measures and grouped flow episodes.
Interactive case files, price histories and CSV exports from a saved public snapshot.
The October snapshot covers 24,265 reported taker trades across 59 political and macro contracts, grouped into 309 flow episodes.