World on Edge

See what happens when your political bets go wrong together.

World on Edge is a paper fund built around six prediction-market contracts. Change a belief, change how closely the outcomes move together, and watch the shape of the portfolio’s losses change.

The World on Edge paper portfolio and scenario risk figures — 01 A $10,000 paper fund with 50% deployed. These are simulated settlement outcomes under the displayed assumptions.

Purchases use the captured order-book depth and a fixed cash budget. The page puts position sizing beside the distribution of possible final wealth, so the assumptions have somewhere visible to land.

The uncomfortable part of a portfolio

Six positions can still share one bad scenario. The dependence control makes that easy to explore, while expected shortfall shows the average loss in the worst tail of the model.

In the separate sizing comparison, the model chooses cash when it has no assumed advantage. More optimistic beliefs can justify larger positions, but the answer belongs to those assumptions.

Under the hood

Cash-limited paper purchases that walk captured order-book depth.

Correlated binary settlement scenarios, expected shortfall and constrained Kelly sizing.

With no assumed edge, the sizing model keeps the money in cash. Change the beliefs or the way events move together, and the deployment and downside change with them.